As winter days draw in, and it becomes darker by just a little each night, it seems natural to reach for something positive. Sadly, even a glance at the BBC news app on your phone or a minutes viewing of the 10 o’clock news fails to provide the comfort and hope we are looking for. Every day is full of some new Brexit-related story, election campaign blunder or horrendous (or possibly worse just plain stupid) statement for some world leader.
Cheery start.
Let me try to pull it back. While the topics selected by the news fail to cover the good that is going on in the world, I would like to highlight them, and as the year passes by provide some reason to look to the future with hope. Fair warning, given this is a medical paper the topics have a slight medical slant.
- Increased global life expectancy
Lets start with a big one. Life expectancy across all continents is improving. This is not to say that inequalities don’t still exist, but it is worth noting that the biggest increase in recent years has been in poorer countries in Africa and Asia. Overall between 1990-2016 life expectancy increased by more than 6 years for both men and women globally.
- Decreased child mortality
Following on from the first, one cause for an increase in life expectancy is a decrease in death at a young age. Globally child mortality has fallen by more than half since 1990. In rapidly developing countries like China and India these rates have fallen even more significantly (83% and 69% respectively). Even more encouragingly those developing economies have lower child mortality rates now than advanced economies had when they had similar income levels, around a century ago.
- AI Healthcare
Modern media has created a fairly terrifying vision of an AI future (the fact that they have managed to churn out 6 Terminator films suggests evil AI is something people genuinely fear, or at least are intrigued by). The future may not be so dark however. AI can aid medics in numerous ways, such as disease detection, management of chronic conditions and mapping of both diseases and treatment plans. It could be used for transporting patients, or even as home aids to help the elderly, reminding them to take medication and alerting the outside world should something happen to a person living alone. While fundamentally I believe that people will always want and need healthcare from people rather than robots due to the emotional element of illness, AI could elevate the care we can provide for patients.
- Greater connectivity
There is great fear about data use, and rightly so, in the wake of Cambridge Analytica and Russian influence in the American Election. However, one area in which this increased use of data could have great benefit is healthcare. Data can be collected via patients’ smartphone or watch and sent to healthcare services to monitor patients’ health. This could be analysed to show patterns and indicate when an intervention might be necessary. As one doctor puts it “chronic patients have to live with the condition 24/7, so the care should reflect that,” and by sharing their health data we can pre-emptively diagnose and begin treatment for patients before it affects them as severely.
- Improvements in Malaria Prevention
While malaria is still one of the biggest killers worldwide, though especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, improvements in prevention have been made. Now across Sub-Saharan Africa, at least 80% of homes have one anti-malaria net. These are one of the most effective ways of preventing new infection, and so increases in use has lead to a global decline in incidence of malaria.
- Improvements in HIV Care
Within the last 20 years deaths related to HIV have fallen by 43%, in large part due to ART. This has saved a total of 13.6 million lives, and means life expectancy with the disease is now approaching that for individuals without HIV. Not only is care for HIV improving but prevention of new infections is also falling, down by 37% over the same time period. This once terminal disease is now a manageable condition.
- Smoking is down
In western countries the proportion of people smoking is falling rapidly. Between 2011-2018 the number of smokers in the UK fell by 2 million, meaning there are now around 6 million smokers in the UK. This number is dropping year on year, and now well over half of people who smoke say they aim to quit.
This must be caveated however by noting that in the developing world reducing smoking rates has proved harder, and also that there is increasing health concern about the use of e-cigarettes and vape pens, but they haven’t been in use long enough to provide useful data.
- Cancer Progress
Every year since 1992 there has been a decrease in incidence and mortality rates as a result of cancer. 5-Year survival is increasing, so that 2 out of every 3 people with cancer will live for 5 years after the diagnosis. These are amazing statistics and while there is much more work to be done, it is clear great progress is being made and will continue to be made.
If you enjoyed this and want to read more on either the future of healthcare or progress that is being made on several global issues, you can find links to several interesting articles below:
https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/global-poverty-health-crime-literacy-good-news
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/wellbeing/future-health/healthcare-predictions/
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190111-seven-reasons-why-the-world-is-improving?ocid=fbfut
Kit Stanford
THE WORSLEY TIMES 
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